Future Perspectives

Corporate Outlook

The following forecast is based on the current business development and our internal planning.

To enhance the comparability of operating performance, the forecasts are adjusted for currency effects5. We do not anticipate any material changes in our forecast if the closing rates as of December 31, 2018, are used as a basis. A 1% appreciation (depreciation) of the euro against all other currencies would decrease (increase) sales on an annual basis by some €340 million and EBITDA before special items by about €100 million.

5 The average monthly exchange rates from 2018 (see table “Exchange Rates for Major Currencies” in Note “Basic principles, methods and critical accounting estimates” ) were applied.

We confirm the forecasts for 2019 and the medium-term targets for 2022 that we provided in conjunction with our Capital Markets Day on December 5, 2018. For 2019, we expect sales to amount to around €46 billion. This corresponds to an increase of approximately 4% on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. We aim to increase EBITDA before special items to approximately €12.2 billion on a currency-adjusted basis, while core earnings per share are seen rising to approximately €6.80 on a currency-adjusted basis.

Bayer Group Key Data – Forecast for 2019

 

 

2018 figures

 

2019 forecast

 

 

€ billion

 

Fx & p adj. Change (%)

 

€ billion

 

Fx & p adj.
Change (%)

Fx & p adj. = currency- and portfolio-adjusted

1

For definition see Chapter “Alternative Performance Measures Used by the Bayer Group.”

2

Financial result before special items

3

(Income taxes + special items in income taxes + tax effects on adjustments) / (core EBIT + financial result + special items in financial result)

4

For 2019, including a lease liability of approximately €1.1 billion under IFRS 16

Sales

 

39.6

 

+4.5

 

~46

 

~+4

Crop Science

 

14.3

 

+6.1

 

 

 

~+4

Pharmaceuticals

 

16.7

 

+3.4

 

 

 

~+4

Consumer Health

 

5.5

 

–0.7

 

 

 

~+1

Animal Health

 

1.5

 

+0.5

 

 

 

~+4

 

 

 

 

Margin (%)

 

 

 

Margin (%)

EBITDA before special items1

 

9.5

 

24.1

 

~12.2

 

~27

Crop Science

 

2.7

 

18.6

 

 

 

~25

Pharmaceuticals

 

5.6

 

33.4

 

 

 

~34

Consumer Health

 

1.1

 

20.1

 

 

 

~21

Animal Health

 

0.4

 

23.9

 

 

 

~24

Financial result (core)2

 

(1.3)

 

 

 

~(1.8)

 

 

Tax rate (core)3

 

20.6%

 

 

 

~23%

 

 

Free cash flow1

 

4.7

 

 

 

~3 – 4

 

 

Net financial debt1,4

 

35.7

 

 

 

~36

 

 

 

 

 €

 

 

 

 

 

Core EPS1

 

5.94

 

 

 

~6.80

 

 

We expect substantial special charges in 2019, mainly in connection with restructuring measures.

The first-time application of IFRS 16 is expected to result in an around €0.3 billion increase in EBITDA before special items compared with the previous year. We also anticipate that free cash flow will rise by approximately €0.3 billion and net financial debt by approximately €1.1 billion due to this effect.

Compare to Last Year